Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $4392.78 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $7149.00 vs $2756.22).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $7149.00 | $2756.22 |
| Largest drop | $6227.00 | $4460.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (48 trades, 7 cycles).
Simulated premium was $11,256. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$8,500. Combined realized P&L was $2,756.
Puts were assigned on 21.9% of put trades (7 of 32). Calls were assigned away on 43.8% of call trades (7 of 16).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($2,756) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($7,149) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $4,460 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $4,460, from the 2026-03-10 peak to the 2026-10-30 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $6,227 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $6,227, from the 2026-03-02 peak to the 2026-07-20 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 58 of 500 days (11.6%). Its widest lead was $840 on 2025-01-13; its widest deficit was −$6,669 on 2026-08-25.
Wheel P&L peaked at $5,374 on 2026-03-10 and bottomed at −$300 on 2024-12-19. Buy-and-hold peaked at $10,090 on 2026-03-02 and bottomed at −$907 on 2025-01-13.
Of 48 priced entries, 6 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 24 used historical option bars, and 18 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $141 | — | −$249 | $390 | $0 | $249 |
| 2024-12 | −$250 | −$391 | −$858 | $608 | $665 | $858 |
| 2025-01 | $105 | $355 | −$235 | $340 | $310 | $235 |
| 2025-02 | $257 | $152 | $410 | −$153 | $158 | $134 |
| 2025-03 | $452 | $195 | $1,281 | −$829 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-04 | $678 | $226 | $1,870 | −$1,192 | $0 | $162 |
| 2025-05 | $992 | $315 | $2,193 | −$1,201 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-06 | $1,306 | $314 | $2,498 | −$1,192 | $0 | $295 |
| 2025-07 | $1,683 | $377 | $2,669 | −$986 | $0 | $421 |
| 2025-08 | $1,977 | $294 | $3,560 | −$1,583 | $0 | $27 |
| 2025-09 | $2,351 | $374 | $4,702 | −$2,351 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-10 | $1,653 | −$698 | $3,170 | −$1,517 | $1,556 | $1,698 |
| 2025-11 | $3,367 | $1,714 | $4,523 | −$1,156 | $0 | $345 |
| 2025-12 | $3,562 | $195 | $5,270 | −$1,708 | $0 | $670 |
| 2026-01 | $4,343 | $781 | $6,705 | −$2,362 | $0 | $2,443 |
| 2026-02 | $5,014 | $671 | $9,883 | −$4,869 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-03 | $3,742 | −$1,272 | $6,619 | −$2,877 | $1,632 | $3,471 |
| 2026-04 | $3,541 | −$201 | $6,164 | −$2,623 | $1,833 | $3,926 |
| 2026-05 | $3,831 | $290 | $6,778 | −$2,947 | $1,543 | $3,312 |
| 2026-06 | $2,255 | −$1,576 | $4,750 | −$2,495 | $3,119 | $5,340 |
| 2026-07 | $2,720 | $465 | $4,421 | −$1,701 | $2,654 | $5,669 |
| 2026-08 | $3,221 | $501 | $8,601 | −$5,380 | $2,153 | $1,489 |
| 2026-09 | $1,903 | −$1,318 | $6,890 | −$4,987 | $3,471 | $3,200 |
| 2026-10 | $914 | −$989 | $5,176 | −$4,262 | $4,460 | $4,914 |
| 2026-11 | $2,756 | $1,842 | $7,149 | −$4,393 | $2,618 | $2,941 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. WPM is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 408.4% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its precious-metals peers GDX, GLD, NEM and SLV, WPM sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 33.9%. 0 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while WPM did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for WPM uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +19.0 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | WPM | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 21.9% | 31.0% | 33rd of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $11,256 | $10,128 | 21st of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $2,756 | $2,828 | 24th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $7,149 | $3,901 | 16th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$4,393 | −$495 | 38th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPM | 21.9% | $11,256 | $2,756 | $7,149 | Wheel behind |
| GDX | 34.5% | $7,531 | $3,931 | $4,858 | Wheel behind |
| GLD | 21.9% | $14,556 | $11,056 | $12,456 | Wheel behind |
| NEM | 42.3% | $10,128 | $2,828 | $7,587 | Wheel behind |
| SLV | 33.3% | $6,250 | $1,500 | $1,839 | Wheel behind |
WPM 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 6 IV / 24 bar / 18 HV
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