Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $7706.17 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $10773.00 vs $3066.83).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $10773.00 | $3066.83 |
| Largest drop | $11585.00 | $9312.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (50 trades, 6 cycles).
Simulated premium was $16,317. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$13,250. Combined realized P&L was $3,067.
Puts were assigned on 15.4% of put trades (6 of 39). Calls were assigned away on 45.5% of call trades (5 of 11).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($3,067) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($10,773) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $9,312 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $9,312, from the 2026-02-11 peak to the 2026-07-17 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $11,585 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $11,585, from the 2026-03-02 peak to the 2026-07-20 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 47 of 500 days (9.4%). Its widest lead was $1,028 on 2024-12-19; its widest deficit was −$11,855 on 2026-08-25.
Wheel P&L peaked at $9,896 on 2026-02-11 and bottomed at −$54 on 2024-12-20. Buy-and-hold peaked at $16,835 on 2026-03-02 and bottomed at −$785 on 2024-11-13.
Of 50 priced entries, 6 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 26 used historical option bars, and 18 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $239 | — | $58 | $181 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024-12 | $71 | −$168 | −$563 | $634 | $309 | $914 |
| 2025-01 | $515 | $444 | $910 | −$395 | $0 | $152 |
| 2025-02 | $856 | $341 | $1,244 | −$388 | $0 | $453 |
| 2025-03 | $1,183 | $327 | $2,457 | −$1,274 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-04 | $1,499 | $316 | $3,374 | −$1,875 | $0 | $589 |
| 2025-05 | $1,881 | $382 | $3,415 | −$1,534 | $0 | $548 |
| 2025-06 | $2,222 | $341 | $3,509 | −$1,287 | $0 | $553 |
| 2025-07 | $2,537 | $315 | $4,052 | −$1,515 | $0 | $426 |
| 2025-08 | $3,029 | $492 | $6,033 | −$3,004 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-09 | $3,538 | $508 | $8,472 | −$4,934 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-10 | $4,398 | $860 | $7,697 | −$3,299 | $0 | $2,471 |
| 2025-11 | $5,318 | $920 | $9,059 | −$3,741 | $0 | $1,109 |
| 2025-12 | $5,999 | $681 | $8,569 | −$2,570 | $0 | $1,599 |
| 2026-01 | $6,597 | $598 | $10,666 | −$4,069 | $200 | $3,249 |
| 2026-02 | $9,038 | $2,441 | $16,776 | −$7,738 | $858 | $0 |
| 2026-03 | $6,222 | −$2,816 | $11,914 | −$5,692 | $3,674 | $4,921 |
| 2026-04 | $3,847 | −$2,375 | $10,437 | −$6,590 | $6,049 | $6,398 |
| 2026-05 | $4,231 | $384 | $9,931 | −$5,700 | $5,665 | $6,904 |
| 2026-06 | $2,400 | −$1,831 | $7,129 | −$4,729 | $7,496 | $9,706 |
| 2026-07 | $1,247 | −$1,153 | $6,143 | −$4,896 | $8,649 | $10,692 |
| 2026-08 | $2,551 | $1,304 | $11,927 | −$9,376 | $7,345 | $4,908 |
| 2026-09 | $2,286 | −$265 | $9,943 | −$7,657 | $7,610 | $6,892 |
| 2026-10 | $1,105 | −$1,181 | $8,154 | −$7,049 | $8,791 | $8,681 |
| 2026-11 | $3,724 | $2,619 | $10,773 | −$7,049 | $6,172 | $6,062 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. AEM is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 532.0% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its precious-metals peers GLD, GOLD, SLV and WPM, AEM sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 27.6%. 0 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while AEM did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for AEM uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +12.9 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | AEM | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 15.4% | 31.0% | 41st of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $16,317 | $10,128 | 16th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $3,067 | $2,828 | 22nd of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $10,773 | $3,901 | 11th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$7,706 | −$495 | 42nd of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEM | 15.4% | $16,317 | $3,067 | $10,773 | Wheel behind |
| GLD | 21.9% | $14,556 | $11,056 | $12,456 | Wheel behind |
| GOLD | 41.7% | $4,820 | $420 | $605 | Wheel behind |
| SLV | 33.3% | $6,250 | $1,500 | $1,839 | Wheel behind |
| WPM | 21.9% | $11,256 | $2,756 | $7,149 | Wheel behind |
AEM 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 6 IV / 26 bar / 18 HV
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