Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $4759.36 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $7587.00 vs $2827.64).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $7587.00 | $2827.64 |
| Largest drop | $4275.00 | $3260.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (49 trades, 11 cycles).
Simulated premium was $10,128. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$7,300. Combined realized P&L was $2,828.
Puts were assigned on 42.3% of put trades (11 of 26). Calls were assigned away on 43.5% of call trades (10 of 23).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($2,828) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($7,587) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $3,260 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $3,260, from the 2026-02-11 peak to the 2026-10-30 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $4,275 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $4,275, from the 2026-01-28 peak to the 2026-07-20 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-08-25.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 79 of 500 days (15.8%). Its widest lead was $517 on 2024-11-14; its widest deficit was −$7,222 on 2026-08-25.
Wheel P&L peaked at $3,749 on 2026-02-11 and bottomed at −$469 on 2024-12-19. Buy-and-hold peaked at $9,010 on 2026-08-25 and bottomed at −$804 on 2024-12-30.
Of 49 priced entries, 6 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 25 used historical option bars, and 18 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | −$36 | — | −$310 | $274 | $117 | $310 |
| 2024-12 | −$384 | −$348 | −$782 | $398 | $465 | $782 |
| 2025-01 | $15 | $399 | −$232 | $247 | $96 | $232 |
| 2025-02 | −$198 | −$213 | −$220 | $22 | $316 | $525 |
| 2025-03 | $72 | $270 | $324 | −$252 | $92 | $11 |
| 2025-04 | $102 | $30 | $764 | −$662 | $139 | $327 |
| 2025-05 | $267 | $166 | $768 | −$501 | $27 | $323 |
| 2025-06 | $663 | $395 | $1,322 | −$659 | $281 | $120 |
| 2025-07 | $875 | $212 | $1,706 | −$831 | $69 | $365 |
| 2025-08 | $1,113 | $239 | $2,936 | −$1,823 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-09 | $1,341 | $227 | $3,927 | −$2,586 | $0 | $94 |
| 2025-10 | $1,493 | $152 | $3,593 | −$2,100 | $198 | $1,730 |
| 2025-11 | $2,315 | $822 | $4,569 | −$2,254 | $0 | $754 |
| 2025-12 | $2,250 | −$65 | $5,481 | −$3,231 | $961 | $593 |
| 2026-01 | $2,154 | −$96 | $6,731 | −$4,577 | $1,317 | $1,960 |
| 2026-02 | $3,749 | $1,595 | $8,496 | −$4,747 | $0 | $195 |
| 2026-03 | $2,141 | −$1,608 | $6,321 | −$4,180 | $1,608 | $2,370 |
| 2026-04 | $2,688 | $547 | $6,605 | −$3,917 | $1,061 | $2,086 |
| 2026-05 | $2,127 | −$561 | $6,477 | −$4,350 | $1,622 | $2,214 |
| 2026-06 | $1,175 | −$952 | $4,836 | −$3,661 | $2,574 | $3,855 |
| 2026-07 | $1,175 | $0 | $4,867 | −$3,692 | $2,574 | $3,824 |
| 2026-08 | $1,788 | $613 | $8,102 | −$6,314 | $1,961 | $908 |
| 2026-09 | $862 | −$926 | $7,030 | −$6,168 | $2,887 | $1,980 |
| 2026-10 | $489 | −$373 | $6,157 | −$5,668 | $3,260 | $2,853 |
| 2026-11 | $1,919 | $1,430 | $7,587 | −$5,668 | $1,830 | $1,423 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. NEM is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 358.2% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its precious-metals peers AEM, GLD, GOLD and WPM, NEM sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 21.9%. 0 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while NEM did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for NEM uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +14.7 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | NEM | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 42.3% | 31.0% | 5th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $10,128 | $10,128 | 23rd of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $2,828 | $2,828 | 23rd of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $7,587 | $3,901 | 14th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$4,759 | −$495 | 39th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 42.3% | $10,128 | $2,828 | $7,587 | Wheel behind |
| AEM | 15.4% | $16,317 | $3,067 | $10,773 | Wheel behind |
| GLD | 21.9% | $14,556 | $11,056 | $12,456 | Wheel behind |
| GOLD | 41.7% | $4,820 | $420 | $605 | Wheel behind |
| WPM | 21.9% | $11,256 | $2,756 | $7,149 | Wheel behind |
NEM 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 6 IV / 25 bar / 18 HV
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